Jeb bush flawless victory11/21/2023 ![]() ![]() Hence, South Carolina (Graham), Ohio (Kasich), Texas (Perry), and Florida (Rubio) – with further insurance policies in Virginia (Gilmore) and New York (Pataki). Those candidates would need to appear from states holding two specific traits: #1) Early chronological primary states -AND- #2) Large Electoral Count states (especially if “winner-take-all” delegate rules were present).Īgain, the goal is to keep Jeb afloat by introducing a candidate into the larger “Not-Jeb” group who can remove support from any other larger growing bit of the “non-Jeb” candidate. Some of those next tripwires in 2015 were specific candidates from high electoral count states that would be needed to act as vote-splitters. I’ll be honest, originally (back in 2014) it sounded nuts, but no matter how much we tried to ignore it, the tripwires kept being triggered exactly as it would be if our hypothesis was accurate. These can all be smaller fractures inside Non-Jeb. Evangelicals (Santorum, Huckabee), Tea Partiers, Fiscal folks, Moderates, along with voters who might vote based on race (Carson), and/or gender (Fiorina) preferences. In order for this GOPe roadmap to succeed, each faction within Not-Jeb needs multiple options for voters. Specifically because the number of candidate’s tripwire was triggered we began reviewing media notes for primary calendars, Super-PAC financing, inter-party alignment, money and state establishment party support. However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking. ![]() Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered. Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul seemed to be the biggest risk to Jeb. If a single part of Not-Jeb (remember he/she’s a group) began polling higher than Jeb, then add another similar candidate and split Not-Jeb again. One of those overall primary tripwires (about the 4th one) we established in 2014 was the sheer number of candidates that would be needed if Jeb was going to survive the lower support-margin, more conservative, states.Įach voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious. It seemed a little, well, “out there” so in the Spring of 2014 we quietly established tripwires which would confirm if the roadmap was accurate. That approach guarantee’s Jeb victory with far less than majority voter support. The Sum of the Jeb Bush vote must be greater than any individual part within the Not-Jeb vote. This approach makes winning a matter of math, not ideology. Jeb Bush being candidate one, and Not-Jeb-Bush being the other. If we were accurate in our hypothesis, which was actually based on their previous 2012 strategy to elect Mitt Romney, the 2014 mid-term visible GOP primary spending on incumbents, and alignments within the hierarchy of the Republican establishment – then we assume there would be two essential candidates: In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races. ![]() In December of 2013 we found clues to the GOPe roadmap and began watching carefully. In essence, based on historical and current GOPe events and action, we predicted the GOPe leadership, along with Wall Street and Tom Donohue, would devise a roadmap for Jeb Bush to win the 2016 Presidential nomination. Most of you are familiar with our earlier prediction. ![]()
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